Oscar Projections: ‘Oppenheimer’ Maintains Dominance Following Christopher Nolan’s DGA Victory, Eyes BAFTA Awards Next

BEVERLY HILLS, CALIFORNIA – FEBRUARY 10: Christopher Nolan accepts a Directors Guild of America Feature Film Medallion for “Oppenheimer” onstage during attends the 76th Directors Guild of America Awards at The Beverly Hilton on February 10, 2024 in Beverly Hills, California. (Photo by Amy Sussman/Getty Images for DGA) Getty Images for DGA Variety’s Awards Circuit section remains the ultimate source for all awards-related news and content, including the official predictions for upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys, and Tony Awards ceremonies. These predictions, curated by Variety’s senior awards editor Clayton Davis, reflect the current standings in the race and are not influenced by personal preferences for any individual contender. As with other formal (and informal) polls, competitions are dynamic and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

Awards Circuit Column: (Updated Feb. 15, 2024): The 77th BAFTA Awards are scheduled to take place on Sunday, Feb. 18, at London’s Royal Festival Hall, with “Doctor Who” star David Tennant as the host. Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” leads the pack with 13 nominations, the highest of any film this year.

According to Variety’s BAFTA projections, “Oppenheimer” is poised to secure 10 BAFTA awards, potentially becoming the most awarded film in the history of the event. Notably, George Roy Hill’s “Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid” (1969) previously dominated its ceremony, though Paul Newman was overlooked in favor of his co-lead, Robert Redford. Interestingly, “Butch Cassidy” did not secure the Best Picture at the Oscars, while the eventual Oscar winner, “Midnight Cowboy,” did not receive a BAFTA nomination.

Nolan’s first DGA Award win has solidified his Oscar prospects for directing.

Current prediction tally for winning films: “Oppenheimer” (7); “Barbie” (2); “The Holdovers” (2); “Poor Things” (2); “Anatomy of a Fall” (1); “Godzilla Minus One” (1); “Killers of the Flower Moon” (1); “Maestro” (1); “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (1); “The Zone of Interest” (1)

Current prediction tally for winning studios: Universal Pictures (7); Focus Features (2); Netflix (2); Searchlight Pictures (2); Warner Bros. (2); Apple Original Films (1); Neon (1); Sony Pictures (1); Toho (1)

Upcoming key dates: BAFTA Film Awards / Make-Up Artists & Hair Stylists Guild Awards (Feb. 18); ACE Eddies voting closes (Feb. 20); WGA Awards nominations announced (Feb. 21)

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10, 2024.